The ECB is expected to keep the main refinancing rate to 1% and allow their similar economic assessment and outlook for inflation at earlier meetings. The focus of the press conference back to Greece. While related parties generally agree on loan terms to three years for a total of € 110B, shall be payable by the Parliament on 7 can be approved. Probably wondering about the infection and securities regulation.Like the previous meetings, the ECB will describe the current interest rates as "appropriate", and the risks to this outlook as "broadly balanced" in an uncertain environment. Economic indicators released recently with PMI has been heartening, and the IFO index exceeded market expectations. However, these should not lead to an upward assessment of the ECB over time - especially if the projections published in June.
In relation to the price of development, HICP inflation in March was up 1.4% revised and / and (provisionally: 1.5%), while the preliminary reading for April was 1.5%. Strength and weakness of oil in the euro area can go to the upward pressure on prices in the near future. But how long the situation is sustainable, uncertain, and the ECB is unlikely that its inflation forecasts for upgrade for now. We hope to reaffirm the central bank, "probably in line with slower recovery of the domestic and external demand, prices in general, and wage costs remain moderate. The expectations of inflation in the medium and long term remain firmly in line with the ECB Council's objective of keeping inflation below but anchored around 2% over the medium term ".
The ECB held its key interest rate to 1% and the attitude to go little by little the action of non-standard loans. Last week the central bank led a LTROs three months in the variable rate tender for the first time since October 2008. Demand was weak as the bids amounted to € 4.8b, compared to estimates of the ECB 15B of the euro. The lowest to highest tender prices and were 1.5% and 1% (benchmark interest rate principal), each with an average of 1.15%. The weakness in demand was driven by several factors. Concerns about sovereign debt crisis was one of the factors at the same time, the fact that it is much more expensive is the ECB's refinancing operations by the market to another. The three-month Euribor rates and three-month Eonia phones are around 0.67% and 0.47%, well below the reference rate. In addition, the estimated demand for euro 15 B was significantly higher than those observed in the last three months LR demand. It is for the bidder not to offer aggressive, because it would be able to obtain financing at lower prices normal. In the press conference, we hope that many questions about the sovereign crisis in Greece and the European countries peripherals. At the conference of the G-20, ECB President Trichet said the situation in Spain is different in Greece. The market will be interested to know the position of Chairman of the spread from Greece to other highly indebted economies, like Portugal, Spain and Ireland. Another issue is the safety rules, such as long-term bonds in Greece by S & P to BB +, or "junk" downgraded last week. Under current law, only one of the three rating agencies to rate the debt to BBB + or higher to be eligible as collateral. Therefore, the situation of the Greek bonds is not as collateral, Moody's, A2 are concerned, remains above BBB +. Fitch has an BBB-. While we believe further downgrade is unlikely in the short term and in Greece almost secured a € 110B rescue package in three years, Greece is still in danger, as we still have to overcome obstacles in the implementation of austerity measures to reduce the deficit. Okay, let's go to the ECB is flexible relax the rules of an additional safeguard as it will be catastrophic, as the Greek bond securities due.
Post a Comment